Logo of Science Foundation Ireland  Logo of the Higher Education Authority, Ireland7 Capacities
Ireland's High-Performance Computing Centre | ICHEC
Home | News | Infrastructure | Outreach | Services | Research | Support | Education & Training | Consultancy | About Us | Login


Title:Adaptive postprocessing of short-term wind forecasts for energy applications.
Authors:Conor Sweeney, Peter Lynch, 2011
Abstract: We present a new method of reducing the error in predicted wind speed, thus enabling better management of wind energy facilities. A numerical weather prediction model, COSMO, was used to produce 48 h forecast data every day in 2008 at horizontal resolutions of 10 and 3 km. A new adaptive statistical method was applied to the model output to improve the forecast skill. The method applied corrective weights to a set of forecasts generated using several post-processing methods. The weights were calculated based on the recent skill of the different forecasts. The resulting forecast data were compared with observed data, and skill scores were calculated to allow comparison between different post-processing methods. The total root mean square error performance of the composite forecast is superior to that of any of the individual methods. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
ICHEC Project:ZEPHYR: Dynamical and statistical down-scaling of ensemble forecasts for wind energy applications in Ireland.
Publication:Wind Energy, 14, 317–325. DOI: 10.1002/we.420 PDF.
URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/we.420/abstract
Keywords: wind forecast; wind energy; adaptive filtering; NWP; statistical post-processing
Status: Published

return to publications list