Paul Nolan, Ph.D.

Climate Science Programme Manager
+353 1 529 1032
HPC Hub Dublin

Paul has a PhD in Meteorology (UCD), a M.Sc. in Mathematics (NUIM), a M.Sc. in High Performance Computing (TCD) and a B.Sc., in Mathematics (NUIG). He has lectured on Climate Dynamics and Mathematics at UCD and TCD for over six years before Joining ICHEC in March 2013. 

Paul is currently managing four EPA/GSI projects in the areas of modelling the present and future climate of Ireland. One such project involves working with Met Éireann on running EC-Earth global climate simulations. The results will contribute towards the CMIP6 project and the resulting Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR6 reports. A second EPA-funded project involves using Regional Climate Models to dynamically downscale the global data in order to provide highly-detailed climate projections for Ireland.


Peer Reviewed Publications (2006-2021):

Jones, C.D., J.E. Hickman, S.T. Rumbold, J. Walton, R.D. Lamboll, R.B. Skeie, S. Fiedler, P. Forster, J. Rogelj, M. Abe, M. Botzet, K. Calvin, C. Cassou, J.N.S. Cole, P. Davini, M. Deushi, M. Dix, J.C. Fyfe, N.P. Gillett, T. Ilyina, M. Kawamiya, M. Kelley, S. Kharin, T. Koshiro, H. Li, C. Mackallah, W.A. Müller, P. Nabat, T. van Noije, P. Nolan, R. Ohgaito, D. Olivié, N. Oshima, J. Parodi, T.J. Reerink, L. Ren, A. Romanou, R. Séférian, Y. Tang, C. Timmreck, J. Tjiputra, E. Tourigny, K. Tsigaridis, H. Wang, M. Wu, K. Wyser, S. Yang, Y. Yang, and T. Ziehn, 2021: The climate response to emissions reductions due to COVID19: Initial results from CovidMIP. Geophys. Res Lett., 

Reyne, M., McGowan, N.E., Flanagan, J., Nolan, P., Aubry, A., Emmerson, M., Marnell, F. and Reid, N., 2021. Will predicted positive effects of climate change be enough to reverse declines of the regionally Endangered Natterjack toad in Ireland?. Ecology and Evolution[Read]

Döscher, R., Acosta, M., Alessandri, A., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Arsouze, T., Bergmann, T., Bernadello, R., Bousetta, S., Caron, L.-P., Carver, G., Castrillo, M., Catalano, F., Cvijanovic, I., Davini, P., Dekker, E., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Docquier, D., Echevarria, P., Fladrich, U., Fuentes-Franco, R., Gröger, M., v. Hardenberg, J., Hieronymus, J., Karami, M. P., Keskinen, J.-P., Koenigk, T., Makkonen, R., Massonnet, F., Ménégoz, M., Miller, P. A., Moreno-Chamarro, E., Nieradzik, L., van Noije, T., Nolan, P., O’Donnell, D., Ollinaho, P., van den Oord, G., Ortega, P., Prims, O. T., Ramos, A., Reerink, T., Rousset, C., Ruprich-Robert, Y., Le Sager, P., Schmith, T., Schrödner, R., Serva, F., Sicardi, V., Sloth Madsen, M., Smith, B., Tian, T., Tourigny, E., Uotila, P., Vancoppenolle, M., Wang, S., Wårlind, D., Willén, U., Wyser, K., Yang, S., Yepes-Arbós, X., and Zhang, Q.: The EC-Earth3 Earth System Model for the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 6, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss. [preprint],, in review, 2021.

Morrissey, P., Nolan, P., McCormack, T., Johnston, P., Naughton, O. and Gill, L., 2021. Impacts of climate change on groundwater flooding and ecohydrology in lowland karst. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 25, 1923–1941, 2021. [Read]

Hawchar, L., Naughton, O., Nolan, P., Stewart, M.G. and Ryan, P.C., 2020. A GIS-based framework for high-level climate change risk assessment of critical infrastructure. Climate Risk Management, 29, p.100235.

Flanagan, J., Nolan, P., McGrath, R. and Werner, C., 2019. Towards a definitive historical high-resolution climate dataset for Ireland–promoting climate research in Ireland. Advances in Science and Research, 15, pp.263-276.

O. Naughton, A. Donnelly, P. Nolan, F. Pilla, B.D. Misstear, B. Broderick, A land use regression model for explaining spatial variation in air pollution levels using a wind sector based approach, Science of The Total Environment, Volume 630, 15 July 2018, Pages 1324-1334, ISSN 0048-9697,

Connie O'Driscoll, José L.J. Ledesma, John Coll, John G. Murnane, Paul Nolan, Eva M. Mockler, Martyn N. Futter, Liwen W. Xiao, Minimal climate change impacts on natural organic matter forecasted for a potable water supply in Ireland, Science of The Total Environment, Volume 630, 15 July 2018, Pages 869-877, ISSN 0048-9697,

Nolan, P., O'Sullivan, J., & McGrath, R. (2017). Impacts of climate change on mid‐twenty‐first‐century rainfall in Ireland: a high‐resolution regional climate model ensemble approach. International Journal of Climatology.

John O’Sullivan, Conor Sweeney, Paul Nolan, Emily Gleeson (2015) A high-resolution, multi-model analysis of Irish temperatures for the mid 21st-century. International Journal of Climatology.

Abdalla, M., Hastings, A., Helmy, M., Prescher, A., Osborne, B., Lanigan, G., Forristal, D., Killi, D., Maratha, P., Williams, M., Rueangritsarakul, K., Smith, P., Nolan, P. and Jones, M. B. (2014). Assessing the combined use of reduced tillage and cover crops for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from arable ecosystem. Geoderma, Elsevier.

M. Abdalla, K. Rueangritsarakul, M. Jones, B. Osborne, M. Helmy, B. Roth, J. Burke, P. Nolan, P. Smith, M. Williams. How Effective is Reduced Tillage–Cover Crop Management in Reducing N2O Fluxes from Arable Crop Soils? Water, Air, & Soil Pollution.

Nolan, P., Lynch, P. and Sweeney, C. (2012) Simulating the future wind energy resource of Ireland using the COSMO-CLM model. Wind Energy.

Nolan, P., P. Lynch and C. Sweeney; (2011) Simulating Climate Change and its Effects on the Wind Energy Resource of Ireland. Wind Energy.

Hanafin, J, McGrath, R, Semmler, T, Wang, S, Lynch, P, Steele-Dunne, S, Nolan, P; (2011) Air flow and stability indices in GCM future and control runs. International Journal of Climatology, 31:1240-1247.

Sweeney, Conor, Peter Lynch and Paul Nolan (2011) Reducing errors of wind speed forecasts by an optimal combination of post-processing methods. Meteorological Applications.

Semmler, T, McGrath, R, Steele-Dunne, S, Hanafin, J, Nolan, P, Wang, S; (2010) Influence of climate change on heating and cooling energy demand in Ireland. International Journal of Climatology, 30:1502-1511.

Steele-Dunne, S., Lynch, P., McGrath, R., Semmler, T., Wang, S. Y., Hanafin, J., Nolan, P., (2008) The impacts of climate change on hydrology in Ireland. Journal of Hydrology, 356 (1-2):28-45.

Wang, S, McGrath, R, Hanafin, J, Lynch, P, Semmler, T, Nolan, P; (2008) The impact of climate change on storm surges over Irish waters. Ocean Modelling, 25:83-94./td>

Semmler, T, Varghese, S, McGrath, R, Nolan, P, Wang, S, Lynch, P, O’Dowd, C; (2008) Regional climate model simulations of North Atlantic cyclones: frequency and intensity changes. Climate Research, 36:1-16.

Semmler, T, Varghese, S, McGrath, R, Nolan, P, Wang, S, Lynch, P, O’Dowd, C; (2008) Regional model simulation of North Atlantic cyclones: Present climate and idealized response to increased sea surface temperature. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 113.

S. Wang, R. McGrath, T. Semmler, C. Sweeney, and P. Nolan (2006) The impact of the climate change on discharge of Suir River Catchment (Ireland) under different climate scenarios. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences.


Research Reports (2005-2020):

Flanagan, J., Nolan, P., (2020). Towards a definitive historical high-resolution climate dataset for Ireland – promoting climate research in Ireland. EPA Research Report 350. [Read]

Nolan, P., Flanagan, J. (2020). High-Resolution Climate Projections for Ireland – A Multi-model Ensemble Approach. EPA Research Report, 339.

Paul Nolan, Alastair McKinstry (2020); EC-Earth Global Climate Simulations: Ireland’s Contributions to CMIP6. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Report 310. [Read]. A better quality version with increased quality of images, can be found here.

Christopher Werner, Paul Nolan and Owen Naughton (2019). High-resolution Gridded Datasets of Hydro-climate Indices for Ireland; Environmental Protection Agency Research Report 267. [Read

McGrath, R., Nolan, P (May 2017). Irish Storminess: What Does the Future Hold? Expert Statement: Royal Irish Academy Climate Change and Environmental Sciences Committee, May 2017. [Read]

Nolan P. (2015) Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland, 2015. Environmental Protection Agency, Report 159. [Read]

Gleeson, E., McGrath R., Treanor M., Nolan, P. et al. (2013). Ireland’s climate: the road ahead. Met Éireann, Dublin, Ireland. [Read]

Susan Dunne, Jenny Hanafin, Peter Lynch, Ray McGrath, Elisa Nishimura, Paul Nolan, Tido Semmler, Conor Sweeney and Shiyu Wang (2008) Ireland in a Warmer World: Scientific Predictions of the Irish Climate in the Twenty-First Century. Community Climate Change Consortium for Ireland (C4I) final report, Met Éireann, Dublin, Ireland.

McGrath R., E. Nishimura, P. Nolan, J.V. Ratnam, T. Semmler, C. Sweeney, S.Wang, (2005) Climate Change: Regional Climate Model Predictions for Ireland. Environmental Protection Agency, Dublin, Ireland.

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